On September 2, 2008, Google launched its browser, Chrome, with great buzz in the geekosphere. I gave it a spin, but stayed with Firefox (old habits die hard), and did not give it more thought until I came across this post where Donn Felker ventures his gut feeling for what the browser market will look like in 2009.

I believe that his forecast, while totally subjective, qualifies as an “expert opinion”, and is essentially correct, and wondered what quantitative analysis methods would add to it – and decided to give it a shot.

The Bass adoption model

Properly representing the introduction of a new product on the market is a classic problem in quantitative modeling. At least two factors make it tricky: there is only limited data available (because it’s a new product), and the underlying model cannot be linear (because it starts from 0, and has a finite growth).

In 1969, Frank Bass proposed a model which is now a classic. It represents adoption as the combination of two factors: innovation and imitation. Innovators are the guys you see in line at the Apple store when a new iGizmo is launched; they have to have it first, regardless of how many people have it already. Imitators are the cautious ones, who will jump on board when enough people are using the product already – the more people already adopted, the more imitation will take place.

In terms of dynamics, innovators determine the early pick-up of the product, and create the initial critical mass of users– and imitators drive the bulk of the growth, going from early adoption to peak.

The mathematical formulation of the model goes like this:

 

(from http://www.valuebasedmanagement.net/methods_bass_curve_diffusion_innovation.html)

It is a very elegant and lightweight model, which takes only 3 parameters, and is surprisingly good at replicating actual adoption. The Excel model attached provides an illustration of the dynamics of the model, depending on its input parameters, the total population, and the rates of innovation and imitation.

Bass.xls (27.50 kb)
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Via ethics {for the real world}, I came across this post where William Baker looks back at his experience writing on business ethics for 18 months, and summarizes what he learnt in a list of 11 straightforward words of wisdom, which I reproduce as-is.

•    Profit never outweighs wrong.
•    The solution to a tricky ethical dilemma is often to just say “no.”
•    The best way to deal with a bad idea it to come up with a better one.
•    If your gut tells you something is wrong, it probably is. Listen to your instincts.
•    There are some work environments that you can’t fix, so dust off your resume.
•    You can’t blame anyone else if you get caught up in ethically questionable behavior. There are no victims when “no” is available.
•    Tolerating poor ethical behavior is just as bad as doing it yourself.
•    The ethical character of an organization is dictated from the top down. Establish an environment where employees know that cutting corners will not be tolerated, and they won’t.
•    Your own ethical character is tied in with the companies you do business with. Not all clients are good clients.
•    You are a citizen of humanity. Selfish goals cannot outweigh the greater good.
•    Writing down a code of conduct is a good thing. Establishing it by example is even better.

The second one sounds very true to me. What makes decision making difficult is usually not figuring out the right decision path, but rather getting ready to face the consequences.

If you always wondered what life is like in a start-up (maybe before starting your own?), "Start-up junkies" might just be the show for you. It is a documentary which chronicles the growth of a real Seattle-based start-up, "Earth-Class Mail", in 24-minutes installments. Earth Class Mail's vision is to deliver your postal mail through the web. I have watched 3 episodes so far, and found it pretty entertaining to watch. It was especially interesting to me, because it provided a window into two aspects I haven't experienced, even though I spent the previous five years working in a start-up in the silicon valley. Applied Strategies was fully self-funded, so it never had to go through the whole VC funding mating dance - and after watching it unfold, I am glad it didn't... The other aspect I enjoy is the click-and-mortar nature of their business, which mixes cutting-edge technology with old-school artifacts like giant mail warehouses; it introduces a nice extra level of complexity: adjusting a software prototype is way easier than modifying the way a physical "factory" operates!

The first American season of “Kitchen Nightmares” aired its final episode on Fox a few weeks back. The show follows a simple recipe: in each episode, Chef Gordon Ramsay is called in by the owner of a fledging restaurant, and has one week to put it back on track. The formula makes for great TV: take a group of people nearing bankruptcy, throw in a guy with a strong personality who doesn’t mince his words, and let him explain to them what they are doing wrong. The result is a high-intensity series, filled with emotion and drama – and I got immediately hooked up.

I spent quite some time catching up with the entire season, and after a little, I realized that my interest had shifted. I still enjoyed the high-octane exchanges, but I grew fascinated by the predictability of each episode. The restaurants Ramsay helps out come in all tastes and flavors: an Irish pub owned by a retired cop in upstate New York, an Indian restaurant in Manhattan, a pizzeria in Hollywood, an upscale Napa valley restaurant run by a French chef… And yet, in spite of all their obvious differences, each episode unfolds in a familiar sequence, making “Kitchen Nightmares” an amazing case study in business management. Observing one person in the process of rescuing a business small enough that you can understand how things fit together is already a great learning opportunity; but seeing the same person doing it over and over again is like a perfect lab in management, an experiment allowing comparisons for similarities and differences; so I began to look at the show from that perspective, looking for patterns and wondering if there were lessons to be learnt, applicable beyond the restaurant business.More...